The awards circuit has settled into its final sprint, and the latest forecast—updated on September 24, 2026—shows a slate of titles that could dominate the 99th Academy Awards on March 14, 2027. Hosted by Conan O’Brien from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, the ceremony will be broadcast live on ABC and streamed in more than 200 territories. While the Governors Awards on November 15 will honor Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, the Oscar ballot is already taking shape, with preliminary voting slated for December 7-11 and the official nominations to be announced on January 21, 2027.
Best Picture front-runners and their studio backing
Three films emerge as the most likely to secure a Best Picture nod. “The Odyssey” a sweeping epic from Universal Pictures, leads the pack with an estimated 16 nominations, followed closely by Warner Bros.’ sci-fi continuation “Dune: Part Three” (12 nods) and Netflix’s Spanish-language saga “La Bola Negra” (11 nominations). The latter has already proven its audience appeal, winning the People’s Choice Award at Toronto International film festival— a feat not achieved by a non-English film in fifteen years. Historically, fourteen of the last sixteen TIFF audience winners secured Best Picture nominations, and four captured the Oscar itself, reinforcing “La Bola Negra’s” momentum.
Directing, acting and screenplay predictions
In the directing category, Denis Villeneuve’s work on “Dune: Part Three” is the clear favorite, projected to clinch the award. Close contenders include Christopher Nolan for “The Odyssey” and the co-directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi for “La Bola Negra.” On the acting side, John Malkovich is tipped for Best Actor for his turn in “Wild Horse Nine,” while Julianne Moore leads the race for Best Actress with “The Debut.” Supporting categories see Paul Giamatti favored for “The Debut” and Anne Hathaway likely to win for “The Odyssey.”
Screenplay, casting and studio nomination totals
The original screenplay slot appears wide open, with Martin McDonagh’s script for “Wild Horse Nine” positioned as the frontrunner. For adapted screenplay, the award is projected to go to “The Invite” from A24, while the casting award could swing to Apple Original Films’ “Being Heumann.” In terms of studio performance, Universal Pictures is expected to lead with sixteen nominations, Warner Bros. follows with fifteen, and Netflix rounds out the top three with fourteen. These figures suggest a competitive landscape where both traditional powerhouses and streaming platforms vie for supremacy.
Wild cards and festival buzz
Not all contenders enjoy unanimous praise. Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s “Digger” has generated mixed reactions despite a strong endorsement of Tom Cruise’s performance. Its campaign will need to counteract the lukewarm critical notes if it hopes to break into the upper echelon. Meanwhile, Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky” and Siân Heder’s “Being Heumann” have captured festival runner-up honors, providing them with a modest boost that could translate into surprise nomination slots. As the voting windows close—first the shortlist in December, then full nominations in January—studios will intensify their outreach to Academy members, particularly in regional festivals that act as the Oscars’ version of Peoria.
Looking ahead to the ceremony
With the eligibility period ending on December 31, 2026, the field remains fluid. Campaigns will continue to evolve through the holiday season and into the new year, shaping perceptions among the roughly 9,000 voting members. Whether the predicted leaders hold their ground or an under-the-radar title erupts remains to be seen, but the current data points to a season where epic storytelling, high-concept sci-fi and international cinema command the spotlight. As the countdown to March 14 proceeds, the narrative of the 2027 Oscars will undoubtedly be written by both box-office performance and the persuasive power of awards-season campaigning.
