The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has opened its final voting period, and this year’s ballot carries notable procedural and category shifts. Members who will cast ballots now face a different layout and new requirements, while studios and campaigns are mounting targeted efforts to sway undecided voters. The landscape includes a recently introduced award, revised nominee attributions and a procedural rule meant to ensure voters have seen nominees in each category before voting.
These adjustments come as awards-season shows continue to influence momentum: the Spirit Awards on Feb. 15 and the BAFTAs on Feb. 22 delivered signals that help shape expectations, but many contests still lack clear winners. Below, the changes are summarized, campaign tactics are illustrated and the most plausible projections are presented for the major categories.
Key changes to the ballot and voting rules
Three structural shifts are affecting how the Academy’s roughly 11,000 members will approach the ballot. First, the Academy added a new category, best casting, expanding the ballot to 24 categories. Observers and some voters outside the casting branch have expressed uncertainty about how to evaluate nominees: should the award honor the most cohesive ensemble assembly, the most impactful discoveries, or the most daring, unconventional hires that paid off on screen?
Second, individual names now appear across all categories rather than only film titles. That means people such as Jack Fisk (production design), Sheila Nevins (documentary shorts) and Diane Warren (original song) are listed as the Oscar-eligible recipients on the ballot — a change that could help recognizable industry figures who have repeatedly been nominees.
The new viewing attestation
Third, voters are now expected to confirm they have seen every nominee in a category before casting a vote in that category. The Academy implemented a lightweight attestation on its members-only streaming portal: if a member has not watched a title there, they can check a box declaring they have seen it elsewhere. While the rule formalizes an existing request to abstain when unfamiliar with nominees, the enforcement is procedural — and it still leaves room for members to vote regardless.
Campaigning, small moves and awards-season signals
As final ballots open, studios and campaigns have intensified outreach. One example: Netflix temporarily converted a West Hollywood space into an art-like exhibition showing stills from the cinematography contender Train Dreams, spotlighting nominee Adolpho Veloso. The event included an industry reception attended by several Academy members and by actors such as Wagner Moura, who came to support the cinematographer. Whether such activations change votes is unknowable, but they reflect the creative tactics teams use in tight races.
Industry award results also help shape narratives. The Spirit Awards on Feb. 15 honored Train Dreams (best feature, director and cinematography), boosted Rose Byrne for her Spirit win and recognized other contenders. The BAFTAs on Feb. 22 produced mixed signals: One Battle After Another dominated with multiple wins, but the acting outcomes were not fully predictive for the Academy — winners there included some performances that are not Oscar-eligible and others that complicate the picture here at home.
What the awards told us
BAFTA’s results suggested strong support for One Battle After Another behind the director and film prizes, yet the acting races remain competitive. Some categories seem to be consolidating around clear favorites, while many others continue as open contests. Upcoming guild events, notably the Producers Guild and the Actor Awards, will supply additional data points in the final days before ballots close.
Projected finishes and races to watch
Based on screenings, campaign analysis and industry signals, several outcomes feel likely, while numerous awards remain highly contested. The projection for best picture places Sinners at the head of the pack, followed by One Battle After Another and Hamnet. For best director, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another is the leading pick with Ryan Coogler for Sinners in close pursuit.
The best actor group is still competitive, with Timothée Chalamet for Marty supreme projected as the frontrunner, trailed by Wagner Moura and Michael B. Jordan. In the best actress column, Jessie Buckley for Hamnet appears favored. Supporting races may swing toward Delroy Lindo for Sinners and Amy Madigan for Weapons, but several names remain viable.
Other projected winners include One Battle After Another for adapted screenplay, Sinners for original screenplay, and KPop Demon Hunters for original song. In technical categories, Train Dreams is expected to contend strongly for cinematography, while Frankenstein leads in makeup and hairstyling.