Colombia stands at a crossroads as it prepares to elect a new president amidst escalating violence and deep-seated insecurity. The country’s six-decade internal conflict, involving armed groups, the state, and cartels, has left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced. With illegal armed groups doubling their membership in the past five years, the election has become a referendum on how to address this pervasive violence.
The two leading candidates, Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriellaoffer starkly different visions for Colombia’s future. Cepeda, a left-wing senator and architect of President Gustavo Petro’s total peace strategy, advocates for negotiations with armed groups. In contrast, de la Espriella, a conservative outsider endorsed by Donald Trump, promises a tough military crackdown and an end to negotiations.
The Escalating Violence and Its Impact
The violence in Colombia has reached alarming levels, with forced displacement rising by 300% between 2026 and 2026. Armed groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident factions, the National Liberation Army (ELN)and the Clan del Golfo have expanded their control over rural areas crucial for drug trafficking and illegal mining.
Edilma Martinez Flores, a displaced resident from the outskirts of Cali, shared her harrowing experience of fleeing her home after armed criminal groups ordered residents to leave or face violence. Her story is one of many that highlight the urgent need for a solution to Colombia’s security crisis.
The Candidates’ Visions for Security
Iván Cepeda has pledged to continue and refine the total peace strategy, emphasizing negotiations with armed groups. He argues that this approach prevents a larger loss of life and addresses the structural roots of insecurity, such as poverty and inequality. Cepeda’s proposal has gained traction among younger voters who see it as a path to long-term stability.
On the other hand, Abelardo de la Espriellaknown as El Tigrehas promised a hardline approach. He plans to build 10 mega-prisons, launch a tough military crackdown, and end negotiations with armed groups. De la Espriella’s campaign has been endorsed by Donald Trump, who has criticized Cepeda as a radical left Marxist.
The Role of the United States
Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella has added an international dimension to the election. The U.S. has taken a more interventionist stance towards criminal groups in Latin America, and Trump has indicated that a de la Espriella Victory would strengthen U.S.-Colombia relations. This foreign involvement has sparked debates about sovereignty and the influence of external powers on Colombia’s internal affairs.
The Human Cost of the Conflict
The human cost of Colombia’s conflict is immense. Families like Erin Gamboa’s, who lost a half-brother to FARC guerrillas, and the anonymous couple extorted by armed groups, highlight the daily struggles of ordinary Colombians. The violence has permeated all aspects of life, making it difficult for people to go about their daily activities without fear.
Isabelita Mercado Pineda, a government advisor for peace, victims, and reconciliation, has noted the unprecedented levels of displacement and the failure of the government’s strategy to provide both incentives and deterrents for armed groups. This has left a void that criminal organizations have been quick to fill.
As Colombia prepares to vote, the choice between peace talks and a hardline approach will shape the country’s future. The outcome of this election will determine not only the direction of Colombia’s security policy but also the lives of millions affected by the ongoing conflict.
