A Michael Jackson biopic from Antoine Fuqua is tracking for a huge opening after preview momentum and global interest, despite mixed critical reaction
The new biopic about Michael Jackson has surprised many industry watchers by tracking toward an exceptionally strong box office start domestically, with early estimates pointing to a Friday take of roughly $37 million to $38 million and a projected three-day opening in the vicinity of $88 million or higher. This surge followed earlier estimates that placed the film in the $65 million-$70 million range, and it marks an important moment for distributor Lionsgate, while Universal handles the international rollout. At the same time, the movie’s marketing and structure—ending the narrative before later controversies—remain a focal point for critics and viewers alike, driving intense discussion around both the film’s box office performance and its editorial decisions. The film opened wide on April 24.
Part of the reason for the optimism comes from the film’s strong preview numbers and audience reactions: the picture earned $12.6 million in Wednesday and Thursday previews and holds a striking 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Industry trackers noted that preview receipts put the film on par with other recent hits and ahead of several major event titles, suggesting the biopic is converting nostalgia and broad curiosity into real theater demand. The production’s budget footprint also attracted attention: what began as a stated $155 million production swelled closer to $200 million after additional photography, an expense tied to the decision to omit later controversies from the main narrative.
If projections hold, this release would establish a new milestone for the music biopic category in unadjusted dollars, surpassing films such as Straight Outta Compton (the current record-holder at $60.1 million) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million). Analysts had pegged the film for a strong but smaller opening initially, yet word-of-mouth and preview turnout shifted the needle significantly. The market is watching closely to see how front-loaded the opening will be—whether the film’s haul is concentrated in the first weekend or whether steady holdovers will follow. In industry terms this weekend will test the film’s box office sustainability beyond the initial nostalgia-driven spike.
The preview receipts—reported at $12.6 million over Wednesday and Thursday—served as an early indicator that the film could outpace expectations. Those numbers compared favorably with other 2026 releases and eclipsed preview results for event films that traditionally draw big crowds. Observers point to cross-generational appeal as a factor: the movie appears to be drawing both longtime fans and younger moviegoers, including sizable interest from Gen Z, a somewhat surprising demographic for a biopic of an artist whose peak began decades ago. This mix suggests the film benefits from both nostalgic lapsed viewers and the most active multiplex-going groups, a combination that can create explosive opening weekends if audience retention remains strong.
The film, produced by Graham King and directed by Antoine Fuqua with a screenplay by John Logan, takes a deliberately selective approach to Michael Jackson’s life by concluding the narrative prior to the public emergence of abuse allegations. That editorial decision, supported by the Jackson estate, has shaped many critics’ responses and contributed to a polarized critical profile: early critical scores on Rotten Tomatoes fell into the low 30s before rising to around 40 percent, even as the audience score remained high. The creative choice required substantial additional photography and rework, which inflated overall costs and reflected an intentional focus on the artist’s rise and creative achievements rather than the full arc of controversies that followed.
Jaafar Jackson leads the cast, and many reviews highlighted the challenges of depicting such an iconic performer; supporters praised his physicality and vocal mannerisms as capturing much of the artist’s magnetism. Behind the camera, the film’s visual and sound design were crafted with large-format presentation in mind, and the movie was released in IMAX in many locations to emphasize concert recreations and music sequences. While some critics noted that the script often opts for broad, glossy strokes over nuanced probing, audiences have responded enthusiastically to the song-and-dance sequences, turning the film into a cinematic event for fans eager to experience the music on the biggest screens.
Internationally the film opened across many territories—listed in reports as 82 markets excluding Japan—and collected notable preview totals that reinforced the global strength of the project. Early international receipts included standout preview days such as France and the U.K. & Ireland at approximately $2.6 million each, Italy at about $1.3 million, and Australia near $1 million. Brazil’s previews contributed roughly $651,000, which combined with other showings to reach a running international total reported around $18.5 million including the initial Wednesday take. Taken together, domestic momentum and worldwide interest make a global opening north of $180 million plausible, underlining how the film’s appeal has translated across different regions despite its creative controversies.
In short, this Michael biopic stands as a case study in how selective storytelling, strong previews, and brand recognition can drive substantial box office outcomes even amid mixed critical reception. Whether the film sustains momentum beyond its opening will depend on word-of-mouth durability and how audiences respond after opening weekend; industry watchers will be parsing week-to-week hold percentages and international box office trends to understand whether this release represents a momentary surge or the start of a longer theatrical run.